After six years that set a record for tropical storm and hurricane activity in the Tropical Atlantic, Colorado State University's noted hurricane researcher, William Gray, has called for a season slightly above the long-term average.
In his first 2001 hurricane forecast released Thursday morning, Gray forecast nine named storms, five hurricane and two major hurricanes. This compares with a 1950-1990 average of nine named storms, five hurricanes and two major hurricanes a year.
But Gray warned that while the 2001 season seems likely to be milder than five of the past six years, it should exceed storm activity in the quiet period of 1970-1994. Gray noted that he believes the El Niño phenomenon will be present next summer which, "in combination with other indicators should produce a significant reduction in next year's Atlantic Basin storms."
The El Niño generates westerly winds in the upper levels of the atmosphere that act to shear the tops off of potential forming Atlantic easterly waves, preventing them from intensifying into tropical depressions, storms and hurricanes. "Most of us agree that a weak to moderate El Niño event should be anticipated for next summer which will act as an inhibiting factor through the hurricane season," he said.
While Gray estimated the probability of one or more major hurricanes making landfall along the entire U.S. coastline in 2001 at 63 percent, along the east coast and Florida peninsula at 43 percent and the gulf coast at 36 percent, he shied away from
predicting storm landfall in any Caribbean island. "Because of the difficulty of estimating landfall probability in the Caribbean, we would say the chances of a major storm coming ashore in that region is about average," Gray's report noted.
Gray's final forecast for the 2000 season predicted 12 named tropical storms, eight hurricanes and four major hurricanes. As it turned out, there were 14 named storms and one unnamed, eight grew to hurricane strength and three were major hurricanes.