There was good news Thursday from the Colorado State University hurricane prediction team. Researcher Phil Klotzbach said he thinks the upcoming season will see a below average number of storms.
“The tropical Atlantic has anomalously cooled over the past several months, and the chances of a moderate to strong El Niño event this summer and fall appear to be quite high,” Klotzbach said in a press release issued Thursday. “Historical data indicate fewer storms form in these conditions.”
The team expects nine named storms during the Atlantic hurricane season, which runs from June 1 and Nov. 30. Of those nine storms, researchers expect three to become hurricanes and one to reach major hurricane strength with sustained winds of 111 miles per hour or greater.
The team predicts that 2014 tropical cyclone activity will be about 60 percent of an average season. By comparison, 2013’s tropical cyclone activity was about 40 percent of the average season.
The report also includes the probability of major hurricanes making landfall on U.S. soil as well as in the Caribbean. It gives the Caribbean 28 percent chance of landfall.
Klotzbach said that, so far, the 2014 season is exhibiting characteristics similar to the 1957, 1963, 1965, 1997 and 2002 hurricane seasons, all of which had normal or below normal activity.
The names for the 2014 hurricane season start with Arthur.
Although the B storm, Bertha, did a number on the territory in 1996 when it passed just to the north of St. Thomas on July 8, it was used again in 2002 and 2008 because it didn’t cause nearly the amount of damage as 1989’s Hurricane Hugo or 1995’s Hurricane Marilyn, storm names that have been retired.
According to the online encyclopedia Wikipedia, Bertha caused heavy rainfall, hurricane-force winds and significant property damage In the U.S. Virgin Islands. Total damage was estimated near $7.5 million in 1996 dollars. The Federal Emergency Management Agency reported 1,415 homes were damaged with 43 losing their roofs. Two boats were destroyed, five were grounded and nine others washed ashore.
The 2014 list of names for storms includes Cristobal, Dolly, Edouard, Fay, Gonzalo, Hanna, Isaias, Josephine, Kyle, Laura, Marco, Nana, Omar, Paulette, Rene, Sally, Teddy, Vicky and Wilfred.
The National Hurricane Center has six lists of names that it rotates. According to the website, a name is retired when “the future use of its name on a different storm would be inappropriate for reasons of sensitivity.” When a name is retired, the World Meteorological Organization decides on a replacement.
The team bases its forecasts on more than 60 years of historical data that include Atlantic sea surface temperatures, sea level pressures, vertical wind shear levels (the change in wind direction and speed with height in the atmosphere), El Niño effects and other factors.
The CSU forecast is intended to provide a best estimate of activity to be experienced during the upcoming season, not an exact measure, and although the overall activity might be less than usual, Klotzbach cautioned coastal residents to take the proper precautions.
“It takes only one landfall event near you to make this an active season,” he said.
The CSU team will issue forecast updates on June 2 and July 31.
This is the 31st year Colorado State University researchers have issued the Atlantic basin hurricane forecast. Meteorologist William Gray launched the report in 1984.